The New Terrapin Gazette
2 July, 2012
Scientists have all the frailties of other human beings; and science, where institutionalized, carries all the weight and drawbacks of its tradition and prejudices. Scientists may be as dogmatic and hostile to new departures in thought as others. Encrusted habits are not the exclusive possession of religion, economic class, or ethnicity but affect all human endeavors.
Number 240 of this newsletter (15 March, 2012) carried an item titled, “The effects of unsafe levels of radioactivity on human health”. Based on an article in The Wall Street Journal and a scientific paper by a team of Taiwanese academics, the item asserted the benefits of low levels of radiation. Subsequent information disputes these claims and purports to have demonstrated methodological errors in the original study that led to false conclusions. The New Terrapin Gazette believes its original sources were in error, and retracts its item.
Along with this newsletter, The Wall Street Journal was gulled. A medical journal republished the flawed study. No wonder: the list of authors of the Taiwanese scientific paper is impressive — a lot of university faculty contributed to the research and to the writing of the report.
Final, absolute proof is lacking in this case, as it always is in every case involving cause and effect. Science is not religion, though of course some try to accomplish that conversion. All scientific knowledge is conditional and therefore subject to revision.
That does not mean a decision is impossible. The radioactive rebar is clearly the probable cause of the serious health problems suffered by tenants of the relevant apartments. If proponents of a different view had follow-up data, or could demonstrate errors in the studies done by others, the argument would still be raging; it is not.
The Next Two Years
Iran tacitly admits it is working hard to build nuclear bombs. Believe it. So: war is inevitable; the only way it can be avoided is if the Iranian people rise up, overthrow their lunatic government, and change the course of history. That is not going to happen.
What will the war be? First of all, undeclared. There will be no demands for “unconditional surrender”. Second, it will be a genuine world war. Third, it will be a religious conflict that only one side will admit is religious. Fourth, it will be preemptive. Fifth, it will be a precedented mix of conventional and asymmetric warfare, incorporating all levels of conflict from demonstrations to riots to special operations to every type of military activity, possibly (but not likely) including nuclear weapons.
How soon will war come? As soon as Israel decides it must stop Iran’s march to nuclear weapons; that means in perhaps two years, more likely sooner than that.
What will happen? The USA will try to blind the Iranian radar and take out the defense networks protecting strategic targets, just as it did when the anti-aircraft guns of Iraq were disabled and the Syrian radar was taken totally off line so the Israelis could destroy Syria’s North Korean-built nuclear reactor. Cooperation between the USA and Israel will be extensive, close, and very secret, just as it was on Stuxnet and Flame malware (until Obama idiotically exposed it, which doubtless enraged the Israelis).
Iranian missile bases will be hit, probably by both rockets and cruise missiles, and some ground forces may be inserted for specific purposes. The US Navy will be heavily involved, taking out the capabilities of the Iranian swarms of small craft manned by suicidal maniacs.
Extensive use will be made of electronic and computer-based techniques to disable the defensive capabilities of Iran; none of this will ever be reported in the press, though some vague hints may appear.
The outcome? Sloppy, partial, but crippling to Iran’s military, which may fall apart locally. The government of Iran will remain in place. The immediate result: a wave of well-disguised relief throughout the Arab world (Iranians are not Arabs), and lots of fussing and fuming by everybody else.
The “Palestinians” will respond by trying to kill as many Israelis as possible, and Israel will surge into Gaza and probably Lebanon, crippling the “Palestinian” military by digging out the rockets Hamas has stockpiled. Israeli forces will remain in Gaza for an extended period, perhaps months; it will take that long to find all the rockets and flood all the underground hiding places and tunnels.
Syria will sit on the sidelines, terrorized by the efficiency of the Israeli effort, and remembering what happened to its brand-new Russian anti-aircraft defense system when the USA chose to blind it. The Israelis will tell the Syrian government plainly and very secretly that if Syria deploys its chemical weapons, Damascus will disappear in a nuclear fireball, and Israel will literally destroy the Syrian nation. Syria will believe the threat. Why? No one understands the use of gas to kill people any better than do Israelis, and Syria knows that. There are some people one simply does not offend.
Turkey and Iraq will recoil in shock, while making absurd statements they hope will protect them from Islamist attacks. Indonesia may experience mob violence and bombings, and some African nations will be rocked by local unrest. Perhaps the biggest surprises will come from Islamist missionaries in South America. Some traditional enemies of the USA such as Cuba will issue idiotic pronouncements, while carefully avoiding any action. Most nations will try to fend off Islamist violence by denouncing the war and calling upon the United Nations to stop the fighting and settle the disputes.
Pakistan, having been clearly informed that it will remain on the sidelines, will issue politically correct statements and clamp down hard on its Islamist militants. Pakistan does not want to give India any advantage, so it cannot afford to be weakened by jihadi pressure on the government.
European cities will be awash in violent demonstrations, but the implications of Muslim immigration will still not be clear to the governments of Holland, Germany, France, Austria and the Scandinavian countries.
The USA may well suffer a number of attacks targeting airports, bridges and dams, as well as Jewish hospitals and schools. US residents should prepare for disruptions of utilities and some other services, including delivery of food to markets and supplies of gasoline and Diesel fuel. They should be equipped to support their families for at least three weeks, which means stockpiling water and food.
The government of the USA will come under prolonged, fierce criticism from its citizens, no matter who is in the White House. Failure to guard vital facilities, especially the small number of critically important bridges that permit the cross-continental flow of goods will be cited as evidence of gross incompetence. (Look at a map of the Mississippi river and note the bridges; trace the railways and major highways of the nation, looking for junctions and railheads.) Politicians will scramble frantically to protect their privileged positions. The electorate will be enraged as hardships increase and assistance is slow to arrive. The political impact is hard to estimate as it is always irrational (remember Katrina), but it could be seismic.
Few will note that this catastrophe is actually a gentle reminder of the fanatical intent of colonialist Islam, and that preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon it could hand off to suicidal jihadis is well worth the sacrifice the civilian population of the USA must make.
Overall, a wound will be cauterized, but the intent of militant, colonialist Islam will not be altered. Islam will remain expansionist, and will move forward aggressively with its long-term demographic weapon, particularly in Europe, which will remain naively vulnerable. The final confrontation will merely be delayed, for the lesson will not have been learned.
New Taxes: The List
Here is a list of all the new taxes the Obama administration is imposing and will impose on the populace, with particular emphasis on taxes imposed on households with incomes under a quarter of a million dollars a year. The compilation is courtesy of the folks at the Breitbart organization. You can call it up on line at this location. Additionally, this newsletter has archived the information and will be pleased to send you a copy via e-mail; reminders will appear from time to time.
The Boil That Remains To Be Lanced
Regarding F&F, a few reminders: as reported and commented on in Number 77 of this newsletter, the Obama administration realized (in April of 2009) there was domestic political advantage to be gained from the claim that too many firearms sold in the USA were winding up in the hands of the Mexican drug cartels. The figures Obama quoted to the Mexicans were soon exposed as fraudulently inflated, a fact you learned in July of that year, so the Obamites realized something had to be done to prove that the quantity of firearms in criminal hands in Mexico was actually growing rapidly. (Sources: One, and Two, then Three, and finally Four .) Then in October of 2009, according to Katie Pavlich’s account in her book (ISBN 978-1-59698-321-2, pages 38-9), F&F was born at a high-level meeting of law enforcers (the director of the FBI and leaders of the Drug Enforcement Agency and BATFE), legal types (Assistant Attorney General of the Criminal Division of the Department of Justice Lanny Brewer), and presumably others. From there, the concept of “gun walking”, already discredited and discarded as too dangerous by the G. W. Bush administration, went straight to hell in a handbasket. For an exhaustive chronology of the entire F&F debacle, including some of Holder’s most recalcitrant testimony before Issa’s committee, see this web page.
Speaking of dark corners and hidden facts, one murky subject seldom mentioned is the potential involvement of US officials in the activities of the Mexican drug cartels. Make no mistake: the traffickers believe anybody can be bought or intimidated; those who resist are set aside, headless. The cartels have been actively recruiting US law enforcement for years, and it would be foolish and naive to assume none have taken advantage of the situation. There once was a cop — in Customs, it was then called — who was the head of a major border gateway in the US Southwest; drug confiscations at his station were oddly very low for a long time, and when he retired, they went up dramatically. Was he bent? Nobody knows, but don’t think the notion never occurred to his bosses. They doubtless monitored his lifestyle for years.
Does that mean some law enforcement officers in the USA might be targeted for assassination? Yes, absolutely; in fact, it has probably already happened, though it would be understandable if the government suppressed information about it.
Well. For an excellent video review of everything you already know (because you are a faithful reader of this newsletter), go to YouTube for a summary and resounding statement of principle.
Final statement this newsletter hopes you will not forget:
Of course a lot of folks — including Team Obama, most of the major news media, and especially MSNBC — do not believe you ever had or still have access to all this information. They believe you are ignorant. That explains their fast and furious attitude toward the truth.
John Bolton, who knows what he’s talking about and is smart enough to have good ideas, provides a tutorial on Syria.
Taxed for not buying something.
It is now known that “mainstream” collectivist organizations support genuine thugs who are attempting to shut down the flow of information by intimidating people who have the temerity to discuss politics. The victims of these networks of demented fanatics will tell you the terror they experienced was profoundly traumatic — being SWATted is a horror, and coping with endless frivolous lawsuits is expensive, depressing, enervating, and can land you in jail on a trumped-up charge. The full story of the activities of the “progressives'” modern version of theSturmabteilung is just starting to emerge. You have seen a few links to the bizarre story in this newsletter, and there will be more.
“…don’t tell me we won because someday possibly in the future in some other case with some other set of Justices we maybe might achieve some doctrinal benefit from the Commerce Clause ruling.” From here.
Commentary on Roberts’s solution to the unknown problem. Yes, but: the tax is probably unconstitutional because of its origin; of course you know that tax legislation must, under the constitution, begin in the House. Well, this tax began in the Senate. So…that little fact may just be ignored. Face it, Pilgrims: a court that can decide Kelo as it did, and is headed by a guy like Roberts, can turn sugar into moose poop.
“It will be disastrous if we (Israelis) or the international community become resigned to the idea of a nuclear Iran.” That’s a quote from the man who may be the next premier of Israel. His views on war, peace, Iran and the “Palestinians” are of the utmost importance to everyone, no matter where they live, because the next world war is being planned by lunatics. With a leader as wise as this man, Israel and the world may just prevent the deaths of tens of millions. Do read what he says, and understand how he thinks. Use this hyperlink, and if that does not take you to the text, use this one. Highest recommendation.
You probably saw a report on this instance of yet another SWAT team breaking into the wrong house, and that may have prompted you to recall the commentary in Nr. 254, or you may have thought of Kimberlin (regarding whom, see this weblog post, and this magazine article). Well, consider information regarding some software either available or contemplated for the hand-held gizmo you have that keeps you linked to lots of other hand-held gizmos, and recall that in past issues of this newsletter, mobile “phones” have been denounced as infernal devices. All this deplorable misbehavior lends credence to the assertion that the average person is worse off today than he was before the technology of radio transceivers was miniaturized and the cops decided to play soldier. Yes, modern times do give us the ability to do good — such as call for help or directions or make videos with tiny cameras when law enforcers go postal. Modern times also invent new problems. Really hard problems.
“Oh, what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive.” And howdy. Related: folks will be trying for years and years to figure out why Roberts did it. Perhaps he will leave posterity his diary….
A tip of the hat to reader GB for this: a Libertarian explains why Romney will win overwhelmingly. The points are rational and thought-provoking; it’s what is not mentioned that worries the staff of this newsletter. Highly recommended.
Did you notice the supreme court struck the “Stolen Valor” act down as unconstitutional? That law made it illegal to claim falsely you were a veteran, had been wounded in battle, and/or had been decorated. Evidently there are people who falsely style themselves Medal of Honor winners. The law was overturned because it violated free speech. All right, but…somehow it seems contradictory to have stood firm on free speech, and used sophistical arguments to transform a penalty into a tax on noninvolvement.
Long-term NTG subscribers may recall the experimental anti-cancer drug DCA (dichloroacetate). It promised great benefits, if only…and this newsletter expressed hope that a good clinical trial would be done. DCA had already been approved as a medication, so its safety had been established (though no medication is perfectly safe, because everything, even water, has side effects). Why not try DCA out on several hundred volunteers? The argument against that proposal is not terribly clear. Research seems to be moving very slowly, which may, of course, be a blessing. The moral of this story is that early hype is a journalistic artifact that has nothing to do with facts and predicts nothing. Yes, the research and development of cancer therapy is depressingly unproductive (see afterword), and yes, Nixon’s plan for cancer treatment was a stroke of genius — yet was rejected by the biomedical establishment; and yes, a lot of people would lose a lot of money if all cancer were found to be curable by the weekly application of a few drops of olive oil to the ankles. The world is far from perfect, and making it just a little better is often impossible. It’s sad. — Afterword: over thirty years ago, a physician said to a skeptical NTG staffer, “Childhood leukemia is almost not fatal any more!” His enthusiasm and optimism were charming…but has that disease been conquered after more than thirty years of subsequent research, clinical trials, and progress? Could that physician’s words describe today’s survival rate for the disease? Is it realistic to look forward to spectacular breakthroughs?
Here’s a Democrat suggesting Romney may be able to kill Obamacare pretty much regardless. Well, maybe. Read it and ponder the probabilities.
Who can stop what must arrive now?
Something new is waiting to be born
Dark as the night
You’re still by my side
Shining side Gone are the days we stopped to decide
Where we should go
We just ride
Gone are the broken eyes we saw through in dreams
Gone — both dream and lie
The masthead includes a quote from the works of Paul Kurtz.
The staff of The New Terrapin Gazette expresses its sincere gratitude to the many people who have gifted the world with Arch Linux, Emacs, and Firefox.
Publisher: The Eagle Wing Palace of The Queen Chinee.